14th - 16th December 2006
All Souls College, University of Oxford

A joint conference of the Oxford Leverhulme Programme on the Changing Character of War and the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in association with the Institute for National Strategic Studies of the U.S. National Defense University

Key Questions

• How is the concept of deterrence affected today, both in theory and in application, in the face of state and nontraditional challenges?
• What national and international measures might be taken to increase global stability and enhance the effectiveness of deterrence?

Conference Report

The Conference Report is available for download (in pdf format).

Summary of Events

Oxford University’s Changing Character of War programme, partnering with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, staged a conference on the concept of Deterrence at All Souls College 14-16 December 2006. The event drew scholars and senior government officials from around the world to talk about the concept of deterrence and how it is being challenged. It also put Oxford University at the heart of debates on this crucial issue, touching the formal and informal policy deliberations of at least ten countries and laying a foundation for further “track-two” discussions among the officials and academics who attended.

The event occurred shortly after the publication of the British Ministry of Defence’s White Paper on the future of the Trident deterrent and thus prompted high interest from government officials in defence and foreign policy, in addition to the many academics in attendance. The participation of European and American officials and academics likewise ensured a thorough airing of the future of deterrence in the East-West context.

Russian retired Major General Vladimir Dvorkin, responsible for developing the Soviet/Russian negotiating position for most of the East/West arms control talks of the late twentieth century, gave a paper about the concept of nuclear deterrence in West. He was met with lively responses by a delegation from the US, including former Undersecretary of Defense Walter Slocombe, as well as French and British government officials and academics. Sir Michael Quinlan, arguably the most important figure in the evolution of the British nuclear deterrent, gave lunchtime remarks as well, reflecting on the history of deterrence and discussing its continued relevance and importance in the current century.

In addition to eliciting a high degree of interest among traditional Western powers, the conference was structured to push the concept of deterrence into other strategic contexts, especially regions of (potential or actual) nuclear proliferation. The goal of three of the sessions was to dissect what “deterrence” meant in those evolving settings. The conference drew scholars and officials from around the world. There were panels on South Asia (including scholars from India and Pakistan), Northeast Asia (including scholars from Korea and the US), and the Middle East (including scholars from Israel and Iran).

Audrey Kurth Cronin
Director of Studies